American and European avalanche risk analysis fundamentally differ in their starting assumptions. By looking at these contrasting frameworks—one optimistic, one cautious—we can uncover lessons not just for backcountry travel, but also for how we approach decisions in software engineering.
The American Way: “Today, We Ski!”
It’s dawn at your local mountains in the Pacific Northwest, skis on your backpack, clouds clearing, you and your friends are well beyond excited, and you’re going skiing. In the North American avalanche education system (AIARE, AAA, etc.), the day begins with the mindset that “today, we ski”. The mindset is optimistic: we’re heading out, and along the way we’ll keep an eye out for red flags. We’ll watch for unstable layers, recent slides, sketchy weather and anything that might force us to dial it back and change our route selection.
This is a default yes approach: the trip is on unless something stops it. This keeps morale high and energy flowing, and it maximizes days on skis. But it also sneaks in a little pressure. We’ve already pictured ourselves descending fresh snow, and saying “no” feels like a failure. Sometimes that dream run in our heads makes it hard to back away from a very real risk. We fundamentally begin the day with “We will ski”, and only choose “no” as the last step in a process of identifying risk.
The German-Swiss Way: “No, Unless Proven Safe”
Now shift scenes to the Alps. The starting point here is almost the opposite. In the German 3×3 reduction method (pioneered by Werner Munter, the day begins with a quiet and cautious assumption: we are not skiing today. Not until the conditions prove otherwise.
With systematic filters including regional reports, local observations, slope-specific checks, the group works toward the decision: “yes, today we ski”. The terrain is guilty of being dangerous until proven innocent. Success isn’t measured by ticking off a dream line but by avoiding the wrong call entirely. It’s more methodical, more conservative, and at times more frustrating. But the clarity is undeniable: skiing is a privilege granted by evidence.
Decision Comparison
In our American approach, we start with “yes” and then might say “Well, we don’t know how windy it was last night, we have some southern exposure, and we don’t know what the surface under that slope is” and then you might decide you have too many unknowns and stay home. You’re adding up the things that are wrong until you say “no”.
In the European model, you’re more likely to say “Alright, we’re on a moderate slope, we know we don’t have much wind loading, we’ve had stable high-pressure systems, we have limited sun exposure today. Let’s ski.” You’re adding up all of the things working in your favor until you consider it safe enough for adventure.
It’s worth noting that in both systems we have some expectation that the individual will decide if each factor is worth including in the calculation.
Decision Pressure
Here’s where it gets interesting: both methods create their own kind of decision pressure.
- In the American system, pressure comes from expectation. The group feels momentum toward skiing, and stopping feels like defeat. It’s easy to let confirmation bias nudge us toward riskier choices.
- In the German system, pressure comes from the burden of proof. Someone has to make the case for yes. That can prevent accidents but also stall a good day when conditions are fine, just not perfectly proven.
Each model generates stress differently: one risks overcommitment, the other excessive restraint. And both teach us that it’s not just the snowpack we’re navigating, but actually our own psychology.
Choosing Your Default
When we look to apply these decision-making frameworks beyond snowpack analysis, we can begin with a simple question. Before even beginning the evaluation, we can choose our own default answer. Do we begin with a yes or a no?
By naming that baseline, you become aware of the lens through which you’ll see the day. Maybe your optimism leans American—“Yes, unless.” Maybe your caution leans German—“No, unless.” Neither is right or wrong, but clarity about your own default helps balance group dynamics and personal decision-making. And sometimes, just asking yourself, “What’s my default today?” can be the most grounding step you take.
Comparing the Two Mindsets
So we have:
- American: Yes by default → “Today we ski, unless…”
- German: No by default → “We will not ski, unless…”
Both aim for the same outcome of safe backcountry travel, but they flip the mental model. One begins with optimism, the other with skepticism. One fuels possibility, the other enforces discipline. And in the end, both are simply different ways to keep humans alive in avalanche country.
From Avalanches to Engineering
Now, let’s turn directly to software.
In engineering, the big question “Should we build it?” is certainly a cousin of “Should we go ski?”
- Default Yes: The feature will be built unless something stops it. Great for momentum, risky for missing deeper questions.
- Default No: The feature won’t be built until there’s compelling evidence. Great for avoiding waste, risky for slowing momentum.
Both approaches are valid, both imperfect. And the tension between them is where the best teams can work to find balance.
The Sweet Spot
Great engineering teams, like successful backcountry travelers, learn to blend the two. They harness:
- The Default Yes Optimism that fuels action and creative problem-solving.
- The Default No Skepticism that demands evidence before commitment.
Because in both skiing and software, the most dangerous words might just be: “What could possibly go wrong?”
A Closing Thought
At the trailhead, the group always has to answer: Are we going, or are we not? In the same way, every engineering team faces the quiet but powerful question: Should we build this, or should we not?
Neither choice is inherently braver or wiser. It’s the act of knowing your default and examining it that matters. Some days the answer is yes, some days no. What counts is being deliberate and not drifting into the decision without awareness.
And maybe that’s the real lesson from both snow and software: that wisdom isn’t in always saying yes or always saying no, but in standing at the edge of the slope or the start of a project, and asking with honesty: Is this the day?